This was my first week of my 2017 12-Week Year. Week 1 (and 2 to some degree) are about routine building and practice. Overall, I am really happy about how the week has gone. I havent done as much deliberate practice in the evenings, but I have been trying to recover from a two week cold/flu, so by the time I get to my computer in the evenings to continue with my trading, I have been too exhausted. Coupled with this is the fact I have a lot of work to do at work due to it being a brand new year, and on Friday and Wednesday I got a little anxious about so I stopped early. Will keep monitoring this, because it reduces the amount of time I can trade and therefore the effectiveness of each session…
My process for trading in the morning looks like this:
- Get on the train and open OneNote and begin the process.
- Load NT7 and get the latest data.
- Review top down – Weekly/Daily/Hourly.
- Look for key zones, structures and targets above and below current price.
- Get off train and get to SBUX and setup for trading.
- Use the top down analysis to look for trade locations on lower timeframes (LTF).
- Setup fire-n-forget trades based on current price action.
Of course the devil is in the details. What is a key zone? What is a Structure? How are targets defined? What I need to work on is the identification of all of these artifacts, and this is where a lot of my deliberate practice is focused. This week I made a few good calls apart from trade 1. When I took trade 1 on Monday, which was selling as price dropped out of a range, I immediately knew this was the wrong play and I should be long. I will be doing some deliberate practice into these fakeouts. Ironically my goal is to jump into the fakeout, so shorting it was a little silly.
The issue for me this week with respect to not racking up positive trades is that I have been doing really well picking my levels, but they are too far from price to be useful in the small window I have trading. I am nervous of getting sucked into the chop of the LTF’s, so I try to choose levels that have greater power, using the medium timeframe zones at least. This will be something I have to work with.
Focusing on the Good
This is Crude Oil on Friday. ALL zones were drawn in before price hit them. They were drawn in before I began trading. I had a sell order at A, the black line, and I missed it by a tick or two. As it slowly sold off, knowing I had missed A, I decided to head to work. Had I stayed I would have been able to get long at B. Price looked like it was going to take a little while, so I gave in to my psychology. So I need to improve my discipline with staying at my machine for a set window and not giving in to anxieties.
There was a really nice reason to sell the second test of C, with price being stuck between that zone and B. And heres the kicker…when price fell from C, it hit a location that was a trap zone, so D was a perfect long setup. And since it was back up to the edge of the range of C for the 3rd time, heading higher was high probability. I had drawn in E because part of my method looks for the second-zones from the immediate location. E was deemed to be that zone. A tradable reaction was expected at E, though I didnt realize it would go that long (hence the desire to have runners at these second-level zones). Had I been able to take these trades it would have been a fantastic day.
It is being able to pick these zones that is keeping the dream alive. So overall, I am really glad for this week. I had many trades I missed by a tick or two (which I will go over in my in-depth review of my journal this weekend), and I had a few trades where I second-guessed myself and let doubt in, then closed the trade before a fill and they worked out well. I need to work on that too. Small steps.